Well, it's Oscar time again. It just wouldn't be right without the obligatory 'who I think is going to win' list. It's anybody's game this year and Oscar is always fickle. So, without further ado, here goes:
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
George Clooney for Michael Clayton
Clooney is probably the biggest contender this year just under Day-Lewis. Why? I have no idea. Clooney just keeps on playing variations of the "George Clooney" character that he's created over the years and Hollywood just keeps on loving him for it. How else can anyone explain the Ocean's movies? I guess you could liken this to Robert Redford in the seventies and eighties (also a better director than he is actor). Out of all of them, I prefer "Fat Clooney" who won Supporting honors for Syriana. Still, he's no fuckin' De Niro.
Daniel Day-Lewis for There Will Be Blood
Who else is sick of the "milkshake" references already? Oohh, Me! Me! Fuck it. If you wanna eat up the scenery and spit it out with the best of 'em (re: Anthony Hopkins and Al Pacino) you can find no better actor than Mr. Day-Lewis. I have enormous respect for him but he has done better work than this (The Boxer, The Age of Innocence) without awards or nominations. And he will continue to do so. But, it's his year. Let's just see how many times he mentions Heath Ledger in his acceptance speech.
Johnny Depp for Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
THE GREATEST LIVING ACTOR OF OUR GENERATION. What's that? Didn't get it the first time? I'll repeat it for you: THE GREATEST LIVING ACTOR OF OUR GENERATION. Period. No awards necessary. Still, he should have got one for this. He was simply mind-blowing as Tim Burton's demon barber. And he didn't even need to bring up his milkshake either.
Tommy Lee Jones for In the Valley of Elah
What a heartrending performance. Tommy Lee never ceases to amaze me. He just keeps getting better with age too. I was glad to see him nominated (as I always am) but Hollywood loves it's Sam Gerard's (The Fugitive), not it's grieving fathers.
Viggo Mortensen for Eastern Promises
Viggo. He should just get the award for coolest name. His was the dark horse nominee this year. This last spot could have just as easily gone to Ryan Gosling for Lars and the Real Girl or to James McAvoy for Atonement or to Emile Hirsch for Into the Wild or to Denzel Washington for American Gangster or to Mathieu Amalric for The Diving Bell and the Butterfly...the list goes on. Viggo got it though. Good for him. Anyone nominated in this category is a winner (it's like Best in Show for acting). I haven't seen Mr. Cronenberg's film but I heard it's better than his last one (also with Viggo) A History of Violence. Then again, I've seen some Ernest movies better than A History of Violence.
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Casey Affleck for The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Casey was incredible in this underrated film from the director of the underrated Chopper with Eric Bana a few years back. If a man by the name of Javier Bardem wasn't born and hadn't gave the performance of his lifetime I would say Casey deserves to win. Either way, see The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford. It was breathtaking. Even Brad Pitt didn't suck. And while you're at it, watch Casey in big brother Ben's directorial debut, Gone Baby Gone. He will knock your socks off in that one too.
Javier Bardem for No Country for Old Men
When an actor gives the best performance of his career it's hard not to sit back and just be in awe. This was one of those times. Javier is a leading man in a supporting turn here, but he re-defined evil in this film and earned a place amongst the cinema's most honored villains and psychos. Hannibal Lecter eat your heart out. Friend-o.
Philip Seymour Hoffman for Charlie Wilson's War
I'm still kinda pissed he won for Capote. But whatever. I always said Heath Ledger should have won that year (for Brokeback Mountain). I think Hoffman is a journeyman actor in the making -- but he just ain't there yet. I love it -- they'll nominate this guy for this but they won't give a guy like Paul Giamatti a nomination for American Splendor or Sideways. Bullshit.
Hal Holbrook for Into the Wild
Who the hell is Hal Holbrook? Just kidding, just kidding! He's one of the greatest stage, television and screen actors of all-time. He's still performing as Mark Twain on stage and he probably will until he drops dead on the boards. We should all be so lucky to devote our lives to a craft that we love. He's not just the 'old fart' in the race this year. He's earned his chops over the years and they just could easily be giving him a lifetime achievement award along with this nomination. Which, in essence, I think they are.
Tom Wilkinson for Michael Clayton
Tom Wilkinson annoys me. He gets on my nerves. I don't know what it is. I think it might be his dreadful American accents that make Michael Caine sound like he was born in Brooklyn. I don't know. He's not a bad actor. He was quite moving in In the Bedroom. I loved him in The Full Monty. I just think this nomination stinks too heavily of a Peter Finch in Network award. Of course, Finch had to suddenly die in real life to receive the damn thing but at least he fuckin' deserved it. I don't know.
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
It's either Julie Christie for Away From Her or Marion Cotillard for La Vie en Rose. Of course they could just give it to the underdog, Ellen Page for Juno, but I doubt it. I'm going to go with Christie on this one. She's a classy lady. And a Brit. Then again, they gave the award in this category to a classy lady Brit last year didn't they (Helen Mirren)? I just don't know. Oh, what the fuck, I'm gonna say Ellen Page will win. Either that or the French girl. Or Julie Christie. Wait, who exactly did I say will win?
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
I thought Amy Ryan deserved to win for Gone Baby Gone. But that was actually before I saw the movie. Ryan is quite weak and unbelievable as Boston white trash in the film. You can see her acting her way through it in all of her three scenes in the film. She tackles the part the same way she would Portia in The Merchant of Venice or Desdemona in Othello on stage. The only difference is, those are probably roles within her depth. Gone Baby Gone's despicable dead-beat mom should have been played by someone more naturally. And someone you really should have hated more. That leaves Cate Blanchett as Bob Dylan in I'm Not There and Ruby Dee for American Gangster. Blanchett is just ridiculous as Dylan and Ruby Dee has like two lines of dialogue in Gangster. I'm going to say none of them deserve to win and Amy Ryan will probably get it.
DIRECTING
It should go to Julian Schnabel for The Diving Bell and the Butterfly so that means it will probably go to the Coens for No Country for Old Men or to Paul Thomas Anderson for There Will Be Blood. Either way, whoever is taking home the award for director this year will not be sharing it with Best Picture. It's just a hunch I have. They fucked over Sean Penn for Into the Wild and Tim Burton for Sweeney Todd by nominating Jason Reitman (Juno) and Tony Gilroy (Michael Clayton) so I really don't care who wins in this category this year. My guess is it will be Joel Coen and Ethan Coen but being as how they will probably win Apated Screenplay I will say it's going to go to Anderson. There I said it.
BEST PICTURE
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Can't help thinking it's been kind of a shitty year for movies, huh? Not that all of these movies were bad. Just some of them a little, well, slight you might say. I'm guessing it's either going to be Atonement (why even fucking nominate it, right?) or No Country. It's been a while since an old fashioned Hollywood epic won Best Picture. No Country is a bit of a horror western. Do "horror westerns" win Oscars? I don't know, but Fargo was nominated in this category once upon a time. That movie wasn't a horror film or a western but it sure as hell changed how the category was judged ever since. Maybe it's time a little indie dramedy won (Juno) or a smart and slick thriller that's not quite the morality tale it thinks it is (Michael Clayton). There Will Be Blood is strictly a Terrence Malick movie in disguise. So...who is going to win? I kinda think the Coens should win Picture and Director but that would be too appropriate. No Country has made just about everyone forget their last few fuck ups (Intolerable Cruelty, The Ladykillers) and rightly so. I predict No Country will become an American classic. As time tested as The Graduate or Singin' in the Rain. Well, maybe a little more like Silence of the Lambs. Being as how I've changed my mind a hundred different times during this post -- I'm gonna say No Country for Old Men. If you hadn't already guessed.
Whew. That wasn't too long of a post, was it?
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
George Clooney for Michael Clayton
Clooney is probably the biggest contender this year just under Day-Lewis. Why? I have no idea. Clooney just keeps on playing variations of the "George Clooney" character that he's created over the years and Hollywood just keeps on loving him for it. How else can anyone explain the Ocean's movies? I guess you could liken this to Robert Redford in the seventies and eighties (also a better director than he is actor). Out of all of them, I prefer "Fat Clooney" who won Supporting honors for Syriana. Still, he's no fuckin' De Niro.
Daniel Day-Lewis for There Will Be Blood
Who else is sick of the "milkshake" references already? Oohh, Me! Me! Fuck it. If you wanna eat up the scenery and spit it out with the best of 'em (re: Anthony Hopkins and Al Pacino) you can find no better actor than Mr. Day-Lewis. I have enormous respect for him but he has done better work than this (The Boxer, The Age of Innocence) without awards or nominations. And he will continue to do so. But, it's his year. Let's just see how many times he mentions Heath Ledger in his acceptance speech.
Johnny Depp for Sweeney Todd The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
THE GREATEST LIVING ACTOR OF OUR GENERATION. What's that? Didn't get it the first time? I'll repeat it for you: THE GREATEST LIVING ACTOR OF OUR GENERATION. Period. No awards necessary. Still, he should have got one for this. He was simply mind-blowing as Tim Burton's demon barber. And he didn't even need to bring up his milkshake either.
Tommy Lee Jones for In the Valley of Elah
What a heartrending performance. Tommy Lee never ceases to amaze me. He just keeps getting better with age too. I was glad to see him nominated (as I always am) but Hollywood loves it's Sam Gerard's (The Fugitive), not it's grieving fathers.
Viggo Mortensen for Eastern Promises
Viggo. He should just get the award for coolest name. His was the dark horse nominee this year. This last spot could have just as easily gone to Ryan Gosling for Lars and the Real Girl or to James McAvoy for Atonement or to Emile Hirsch for Into the Wild or to Denzel Washington for American Gangster or to Mathieu Amalric for The Diving Bell and the Butterfly...the list goes on. Viggo got it though. Good for him. Anyone nominated in this category is a winner (it's like Best in Show for acting). I haven't seen Mr. Cronenberg's film but I heard it's better than his last one (also with Viggo) A History of Violence. Then again, I've seen some Ernest movies better than A History of Violence.
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Casey Affleck for The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Casey was incredible in this underrated film from the director of the underrated Chopper with Eric Bana a few years back. If a man by the name of Javier Bardem wasn't born and hadn't gave the performance of his lifetime I would say Casey deserves to win. Either way, see The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford. It was breathtaking. Even Brad Pitt didn't suck. And while you're at it, watch Casey in big brother Ben's directorial debut, Gone Baby Gone. He will knock your socks off in that one too.
Javier Bardem for No Country for Old Men
When an actor gives the best performance of his career it's hard not to sit back and just be in awe. This was one of those times. Javier is a leading man in a supporting turn here, but he re-defined evil in this film and earned a place amongst the cinema's most honored villains and psychos. Hannibal Lecter eat your heart out. Friend-o.
Philip Seymour Hoffman for Charlie Wilson's War
I'm still kinda pissed he won for Capote. But whatever. I always said Heath Ledger should have won that year (for Brokeback Mountain). I think Hoffman is a journeyman actor in the making -- but he just ain't there yet. I love it -- they'll nominate this guy for this but they won't give a guy like Paul Giamatti a nomination for American Splendor or Sideways. Bullshit.
Hal Holbrook for Into the Wild
Who the hell is Hal Holbrook? Just kidding, just kidding! He's one of the greatest stage, television and screen actors of all-time. He's still performing as Mark Twain on stage and he probably will until he drops dead on the boards. We should all be so lucky to devote our lives to a craft that we love. He's not just the 'old fart' in the race this year. He's earned his chops over the years and they just could easily be giving him a lifetime achievement award along with this nomination. Which, in essence, I think they are.
Tom Wilkinson for Michael Clayton
Tom Wilkinson annoys me. He gets on my nerves. I don't know what it is. I think it might be his dreadful American accents that make Michael Caine sound like he was born in Brooklyn. I don't know. He's not a bad actor. He was quite moving in In the Bedroom. I loved him in The Full Monty. I just think this nomination stinks too heavily of a Peter Finch in Network award. Of course, Finch had to suddenly die in real life to receive the damn thing but at least he fuckin' deserved it. I don't know.
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
It's either Julie Christie for Away From Her or Marion Cotillard for La Vie en Rose. Of course they could just give it to the underdog, Ellen Page for Juno, but I doubt it. I'm going to go with Christie on this one. She's a classy lady. And a Brit. Then again, they gave the award in this category to a classy lady Brit last year didn't they (Helen Mirren)? I just don't know. Oh, what the fuck, I'm gonna say Ellen Page will win. Either that or the French girl. Or Julie Christie. Wait, who exactly did I say will win?
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
I thought Amy Ryan deserved to win for Gone Baby Gone. But that was actually before I saw the movie. Ryan is quite weak and unbelievable as Boston white trash in the film. You can see her acting her way through it in all of her three scenes in the film. She tackles the part the same way she would Portia in The Merchant of Venice or Desdemona in Othello on stage. The only difference is, those are probably roles within her depth. Gone Baby Gone's despicable dead-beat mom should have been played by someone more naturally. And someone you really should have hated more. That leaves Cate Blanchett as Bob Dylan in I'm Not There and Ruby Dee for American Gangster. Blanchett is just ridiculous as Dylan and Ruby Dee has like two lines of dialogue in Gangster. I'm going to say none of them deserve to win and Amy Ryan will probably get it.
DIRECTING
It should go to Julian Schnabel for The Diving Bell and the Butterfly so that means it will probably go to the Coens for No Country for Old Men or to Paul Thomas Anderson for There Will Be Blood. Either way, whoever is taking home the award for director this year will not be sharing it with Best Picture. It's just a hunch I have. They fucked over Sean Penn for Into the Wild and Tim Burton for Sweeney Todd by nominating Jason Reitman (Juno) and Tony Gilroy (Michael Clayton) so I really don't care who wins in this category this year. My guess is it will be Joel Coen and Ethan Coen but being as how they will probably win Apated Screenplay I will say it's going to go to Anderson. There I said it.
BEST PICTURE
Atonement
Juno
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Can't help thinking it's been kind of a shitty year for movies, huh? Not that all of these movies were bad. Just some of them a little, well, slight you might say. I'm guessing it's either going to be Atonement (why even fucking nominate it, right?) or No Country. It's been a while since an old fashioned Hollywood epic won Best Picture. No Country is a bit of a horror western. Do "horror westerns" win Oscars? I don't know, but Fargo was nominated in this category once upon a time. That movie wasn't a horror film or a western but it sure as hell changed how the category was judged ever since. Maybe it's time a little indie dramedy won (Juno) or a smart and slick thriller that's not quite the morality tale it thinks it is (Michael Clayton). There Will Be Blood is strictly a Terrence Malick movie in disguise. So...who is going to win? I kinda think the Coens should win Picture and Director but that would be too appropriate. No Country has made just about everyone forget their last few fuck ups (Intolerable Cruelty, The Ladykillers) and rightly so. I predict No Country will become an American classic. As time tested as The Graduate or Singin' in the Rain. Well, maybe a little more like Silence of the Lambs. Being as how I've changed my mind a hundred different times during this post -- I'm gonna say No Country for Old Men. If you hadn't already guessed.
Whew. That wasn't too long of a post, was it?
